Sunday, February 9, 2020

538 on the NH primary

With Butt rising in the polls and Bernie pretty stable, 538 looks at the most recent polls and concludes:

"Just how close is the New Hampshire Democratic primary? The five latest polls of the state seem to disagree, but our forecast is somewhat confident that Sen. Bernie Sanders will win. He currently has a 2 in 3 (64 percent) chance of winning the most votes, while former South Bend, Indiana, Mayor Pete Buttigieg has a 3 in 10 (30 percent) chance. [...] So when you make these adjustments to the five polls above, a more consistent picture of the New Hampshire primary emerges: Sanders probably leads by about 5 points."


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