Friday, June 13, 2014

Clinton v. Warren

This is Burnett's interesting article on the possible showdown for the Democrat nomination for President. One of the pundits observed that Clinton is "to the right of her Democratic base." To say the least. Warren, on the other hand, favors all of Robert Reich's list of progressive populist issues and Clinton opposed them all. Clinton has championed third way politics favored by Wall Street, while Warren wants to put them in jail.

There is an enlightening Pew Research study of the various factions in American politics. Democrats, Republicans and Independents are divided into 8 groups:

"Republicans decomposed into Staunch conservatives: Highly engaged Tea Party supporters (11 percent) and Main Street Republicans: Conservative on most issues (14 percent). These are the Republican foot soldiers and their financial backers, such as the Koch brothers."

"Independents broke into three groups: Libertarians: free market, small government seculars, (10 percent) Disaffecteds: downscale and cynical, (11 percent) and Post Moderns: moderate but liberal on social issues (14 percent). Disaffected voters are unlikely to vote and when they do, it's primarily on the basis of personality, for the candidate they like the best. However, Post Moderns include many of the denizens of Wall Street; they're likely to vote for the presidential candidate that will best represent their interests."

"The Pew study assigned Democrats to three groups: New Coalition Democrats: upbeat, majority-minority (9 percent), Hard-pressed Democrats: religious, financially struggling (15 percent), and Solid Liberals: across-the-board liberal positions (16 percent). The Solid Liberals are Warren's base, they're likely to accept all of the principles of the new populism and, therefore, to be skeptical of Secretary Clinton. New Coalition Democrats and Hard Pressed Democrats are not as engaged as Solid Liberals and, therefore, more sympathetic to Clinton."

When big finance types were polled they said there was little difference between Clinton and Jeb Bush as far as representing their interests. So if Dems prefer Warren they'd lose out on all that big money for the campaign. True. But I'm guessing that it would be made up by the millions of small donations that would flood in from the rest of us whose views Warren represents. There would an unprecedented amount of grass roots contributions. Recall that Obama received that honor in his first run because we thought he was the sort of progressive Warren is. We turned out to be wrong but we still hope for that sort of leader. Warren is that leader and we'd contribute twice as much in small contributions as for Obama. Plus Warren also has some big $ progressive backers. Recall how much she raised for her senatorial campaign and she did not become beholding to her big $ backers.

I also question some of his 8 groups. For example there is no place for super-progressives in the Independent category, those of us that refuse to register with the Democrat Party because the Party is predominated by the likes of Clinton Wall Streeters. I don't know what % we represent, but according to this article most independents tend to be highly partisan on either side of the divide. And that these progressives tend no to vote if the Dem candidate is to the center or right. They do though come out for a candidate that represents their progressive values, and that is Warren, not Clinton.

According to Burnett either side needs the independent vote. I'm guessing that even some of the conservative independents are in that category because they cannot related to the big $ Wall Street branch of their Party. And would relate more to Warren on the economic issues like minimum wage, healthcare, social security, getting a fair shot and holding banks and corporations accountable etc. And that she's win over at least some of the conservative independents with that agenda. Combined with the money Warren could raise she would be an unbeatable progressive force for the people and win handily over any GOP candidate. And pull up the rest of the Dem ticket, which would also go populist in their agenda with Warren backing them. And that is exactly what Wall Street fears and why they hope Clinton is their candidate. And exactly why we must motivate Warren to be our leader.

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