538 on the IL Democratic primary

Continuing the recent polling discussion, 538 still gives Clinton a 95% chance of winning the IL primary. This is because they use weighted averages of eight polls. As you can see, the most heavily weighted is YouGov, an online-based poll, which is the most accurate and has Sanders with a 2-point lead. This poll tends to reach at least some of the Millennial demo. But look at the large disparity with the other polls showing Clinton with a sizable lead. Of course when those are averaged in, even with less weight than YouGov, it skews the result.