Friday, February 15, 2019
Reich: Next steps in Dump's fake emergency
From Reich's FB post of the most likely scenario:
"Friends, we now have a national emergency -- not the fake one Trump has concocted at the border, but a real one in which a renegade president is acting as a dictator, taking away powers that the Constitution gives to Congress.
Here’s what will happen now:
1. Congress will take the issue to the federal courts, starting in the District of Columbia circuit, and quickly to the Supreme Court. The questions will be: (1) Can a president unilaterally decide to appropriate money for a purpose Congress has explicitly chosen not to? (2) Do the plaintiffs in the case have standing to sue? (3) Is this a political question that the courts should not and cannot deal with?
2. House Democrats (joined by some Republicans) will pass a bill, under the National Emergency Act of 1976, to repeal Trump’s declared emergency. That bill will then go to the Senate. Republican senators, who will then have to decide whether their loyalty to Trump and the Republican Party is greater than their loyalty to the nation and the Constitution. Public opinion over the next few days will be an important factor.
3. If a majority of senators vote for the bill, the repeal resolution is passed and goes to Trump. He will veto it, obviously. Then a two-thirds majority vote in each chamber will be needed to override the veto. There are probably enough votes in the House for that override. The question is what happens in the Senate. If opinion among rank-and-file Republican voters is strongly against what Trump has done, Senate Republicans will do the right thing. My betting is against this happening.
My prediction overall: The Supreme Court will reject Trump's move, 5 to 4. Roberts vote will swing the Court in the correct direction."