Wednesday, November 7, 2012

Whose electoral predictions were more accurate? Again.

Update: Also see Rachel Maddow's reporting on this. The Silver info starts around 8:30. Prior to that she details what the election means in terms of policies and who won where. Excellent reporting, as usual. And she debunks not only regressive electoral myths but several of their other other bubble myths not based in reality.

Remember this prior post on the Princeton Election Consortium and Nate Silver's 538. PEC was defending Silver against claims of bias and inaccuracy. Well, well, look who was right, again. Both PEC and 538 predicted much more accurately then any others. PEC: "In the races called thus far, pre-election polling medians were correct in 50 out of 50.... Senate: Of the closest races, election returns match polling medians in 10 out of 10. 538 like PEC was 100% with which candidate would win in which States. Well, he gave Obama Florida and right now Obama has a slight lead with 100% of the vote in, but it's within 0.5% so there might be a recall. Now sit back and listen to the regressive denial.

And how accurate were Republican pundits? Check this out.

"Karl Rove...said Romney would carry at least 279 electoral votes with a three-point popular vote margin."

 "Former House Speaker Newt Gingrich predicted Romney would dominate Obama with 53 percent of the popular vote and at least 300 electoral college votes."

"George Will made the bold prediction of a 321-217 Electoral College landslide, including a Romney victory in nearly every swing state... including Minnesota."

"Likely the world's most perpetually incorrect cable news pundit, Dick Morris continued his streak by predicting a 'dominant' Romney victory with 325 electoral votes."

"Conservative columnist Michael Barone was certain in his prediction: 'Bottom line: Romney 315, Obama 223. That sounds high for Romney. But he could drop Pennsylvania and Wisconsin and still win the election.'"

"The conservative [Glen Beck] flexed his prediction muscles on his BlazeTV show: '321-217 victory for Romney in the electoral college,' he said.   

[Wayne Allen Root] wrote in a column that Romney would win with 'a 5 to 7 point popular vote victory' and an enormous Electoral College victory for Romney 'by 100 to 120 electoral votes.'”

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