Latest Emerson Polling

Some interesting stats in this poll. Foremost is of the 1128 registered voters polled 741 were by landline only (66%). We know that young people don't use them. So already we have a bias toward older voters. Nevertheless, here are some more stats.

Overall Biden is leading Bernie 30-27. Sanders dominates 18- 29 age range (47%) and 30-49 age range (37%). Biden leads with 50-64 age group (40%) and 65+ (47%). Nothing new there. In terms of ideology, very liberal with Bernie (55%), Biden isn't even on this scale. Somewhat liberal Biden (32%), Bernie (26%). Conservative voters Biden (40%) Bernie (15%). Again, no surprises.

But this one is the kicker: Those who will vote for someone else if their preferred candidate doesn't get the nomination: Biden (87%), Bernie (53%), Warren (90%). That is further broken down into who will not vote for another candidate: Biden (5%), Bernie (16%), Warren (10%). And it will depend on who the other candidate is: Biden (9%), Bernie (31%).

I don't know how accurate this is given the majority of land line participants, whether this is their biased opinion or if actually Bernie voters said so. But assuming it is the later for argument sake, it indicates the following for me. Bernie voters dominate ages 18-49 and the very liberal. As noted previously, if Bernie doesn't get the nomination then most likely a good % of that "depends on who the nominee is" category will vote for Warren (the poll didn't ask that question). If it's anyone else they might sit it out, figuring anyone else is just more of the same. The Dem establishment's war on Bernie could be another good reason Bernie's supporters won't vote for Biden.

I'm also hopeful but doubtful of the stat that Biden supporters will vote for Bernie at 87% if he beats Biden. But let's again assume it's true. If Bernie doesn't get the nomination then chances are less likely that the younger voters will support Biden in the general and he could very well lose to Dump. The only scenario where the nominee gets most of the Dem participation in the general is if Bernie wins the nomination. Hence he's the best chance to beat Dump.

And of course assuming the stats are true, Bernie supporters also need to support whoever the nominee is to defeat Dump if it's not Bernie. If not, then of course they will be blamed again for Dump winning, even though again the Dems did not put up a candidate worthy of their votes for real change. Bottom line: If we want to beat Dump we need to nominate Bernie.